Although we have seen polling results which point to an enthusiasm
gap for the Democrats in the 2012 election cycle, I believe there is
empirical evidence which disputes the idea of such a gap. Before I get
to the empirical evidence, I'd like to make an additional observation
which runs counter to the widely-accepted notion that Romney supporters
are currently more enthusiastic than Obama supporters. Intuitively, it
is very difficult to swallow the idea that the somewhat robotic Mitt
Romney has generated intense enthusiasm from Republicans this year. Also
to be considered are the multiple gaffes, flip-flops and overall
disjointed campaign effort. From a purely observational point of view it
appears that Romney has not been able to "connect" effectively with
many voters (independents, moderates, extreme fringe) that he
desperately needs to turn out in November. The messaging has been
disorganized and incidents such as his recent Libya response have
brought into question his judgement. These factors would not normally
translate into an enthusiastic GOP electorate.
The
empirical evidence I am speaking about is the difference in viewership
numbers for the respective conventions. Many pundits, pollsters and
talking heads seem to have glossed over these numbers for reasons which I
can't fathom. I'm sorry, but I'll take actual hard evidence of
enthusiasm over pollster data any day. Here are the actual Nielsen
ratings:
Day 1
Democratic Convention: 26.2 million viewers
Republican Convention: 22.3 million viewers
Day 2
Democratic Convention: 25.1 million viewers
Republican Convention: 21.9 million viewers
Day 3
Democratic Convention: 35.7 million viewers
Republican Convention: 30.3 million viewers
It is also worth noting that on Day 2 of the Democratic
convention there was the NFL season opener between the Giants and
Cowboys. Yes, the Democratic convention actually outdrew the football
game and still beat the Republican convention numbers for that night! I
also believe that the GOP numbers for the final night benefited from the
appearance of Clint Eastwood. Some additional evidence of disparity in
enthusiasm between the two conventions comes from the folks at Twitter.
There were over 4 million tweets related to President Obama and the
Democratic convention on the the final night which is more than for the
entire GOP convention. It must be said that Democrats tend to be more
technically savvy and heavier users of social media. But it is yet
another indicator that Democrats may not actually be lacking in
enthusiasm this year. I think most viewers who saw both conventions would conclude that the attendees seemed more fired-up in Charlotte.
I can't explain why some polling results show an
enthusiasm gap. One theory is that progressives are somewhat
disenchanted with President Obama's
moderate first term and therefore they decline to profess enthusiasm.
But in reality they are horrified at the idea of a potentially extreme
Romney-Ryan administration and will vote in order to avoid that
possibility. It is just my theory, but I believe it is plausible
explanation for the discrepancy between polling responses and the hard
evidence of actual democratic enthusiasm we observed in the TV
viewership numbers. Based on the Nielsen ratings I would argue that if
there is any gap in enthusiasm this election cycle, it is with the GOP
and not the Democrats. November 6, 2012 will reveal if this evidence and
my anecdotal observations are correct.